As 2022 comes to a close, it is time to take stock of where online safety is at currently and to make predictions about what the next year will bring. Predictions that will be triumphantly referenced if they prove to be correct – or conveniently forgotten should they not come to fruition.
Online Safety Prediction One – Scam losses will increase
2023 will be the year that scam losses become so large that they can no longer be ignored by developed economies – leading to significant Government investment in anti-scam operations.
Next year is predicted to be a tough year economically. Tough economic times are traditionally fertile ground for scammers, as people are more vulnerable as they are pushed towards seeking bargains and new opportunities to earn. Tough economic times will also initially restrict funding for trust and safety initiatives and cybercrime fighting resources. So that’s a double win for scammers.
The net effect will be huge scam losses with a flow on effect on local economies that Governments can no longer afford to ignore.
Online Safety Prediction Two – The splinternet will transform online safety
The splinternet will increasingly transform online safety into a compliance activity – to the detriment of safety outcomes.
As well as a wave of regional and national regulations that are set to sweep through the internet, we’re likely to see tit for tat sanctions on tech companies driven by security concerns, or just plain politics. After years of threats, we’ll see a number of high profile service withdrawals as regulation makes some services non-viable.
Some of those withdrawals will definitely improve safety – but the splinternet will not be a good thing for online safety overall. Trust and safety resources will be increasing diverted into pure compliance activity – to comply with regulations that in many cases will quickly date and no longer match current online safety needs.
Online Safety Prediction Three – The business metaverse will reach early adopter stage
The business metaverse will reach early adopter stage, and optimism will push aside safety concerns. A few large organisations, and smaller ones that trade on an image of innovation will establish metaverse meeting rooms.
Physical spaces with soft edged furniture where people wear large VR headsets which then transport them to virtual meeting spaces matched to the specific purpose of the meeting. It will look silly to outsiders – but nobody will care when they are co-creating strategic plans by drawing them into the sand of a virtual beach.
Publications will run stories about how metaverse meeting rooms are redefining collaboration. People raising safety concerns will be mocked as overly pessimistic– just like they were during the optimistic early adopter phases of the web, and the web 2.0.
And finally, there is a lot of speculation about what Elon Musk might do with Twitter. My bet is that he’ll approach the idea of citizen journalism in the same way he approached electric vehicles and space travel – and that is to take as big a leap towards the destination as possible, rather than edging safely forward.
The only challenge is to understand which direction he considers the destination is in. So…
Online Safety Prediction Four – Twitter will transform
By the end of 2023, Twitter will have transformed into something more closely resembling a media platform where every user feeds their content into, and consumes their content through “news” channels. However, the most popular “news” channels will serve adult content.
The platform will allow a far broader range of media and provide video and image editing tools. Your feed will feel much more like a news broadcast (but one where every story aligns with your world view). Users will subscribe to channels – and producers of popular stories will receive a small commission.
Twitter will employ as many people as it did at its peak in 2022 – but they will mostly be engineers trying to make the technology work.
The fail whale will return on a regular basis – and Twitter users will love it because it indicates they’re pushing the boundaries of technology again.
Time will tell if these online safety predictions will be proven right or wrong. What predictions do you have for the year ahead?
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